TylerK comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (191)
The thing you might be overlooking is that Monty does not open a door at random, he opens a door guaranteed to contain a goat. When I first heard this problem, I didn't get it until that was explicitly pointed out to me.
If Monty opens a door at random (and the door could contain a car), then there is no causal link and therefore the probability would be as you describe.