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TylerK comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong

126 Post author: komponisto 03 June 2010 04:40AM

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Comment author: TylerK 04 June 2010 06:22:16PM 5 points [-]

The thing you might be overlooking is that Monty does not open a door at random, he opens a door guaranteed to contain a goat. When I first heard this problem, I didn't get it until that was explicitly pointed out to me.

If Monty opens a door at random (and the door could contain a car), then there is no causal link and therefore the probability would be as you describe.