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RobinZ comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong
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On the actual show, sometimes Monty Hall did one thing and sometimes another, so far as I am told. We're not talking about actual behavior of contestants in an actual contest, we're talking about optimal behavior of contestants in a fictional contest.
Edit: I'm sorry, I really don't know what you're arguing. Am I making sense?
Well the Monty Hall problem as stated never occurred on Let's Make a Deal. He's even on record saying he won't let a contestant switch doors after picking, in response to this problem.
Robin's description is correct. I'm not sure what you're saying.
ETA: this thread has gotten ridiculous. I'm deleting the rest of my comments on it. The best source for info on Monty Hall is youtube. He does everything. One thing that makes it rather different is that it is usually not clear how many good and bad prizes there are.
Aaargh! And I had upvoted that, believing a random Internet comment over a reliable offline source! That's a little embarrassing.
The article is awesome, by the way. Thanks!
See response here