thomblake comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong

126 Post author: komponisto 03 June 2010 04:40AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (191)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 09 June 2010 03:53:54AM *  0 points [-]

Robin's description is correct. I'm not sure what you're saying.

ETA: this thread has gotten ridiculous. I'm deleting the rest of my comments on it. The best source for info on Monty Hall is youtube. He does everything. One thing that makes it rather different is that it is usually not clear how many good and bad prizes there are.

Comment author: thomblake 09 June 2010 01:43:43PM 1 point [-]

From Wikipedia:

Monty Hall did open a wrong door to build excitement, but offered a known lesser prize—such as $100 cash—rather than a choice to switch doors. As Monty Hall wrote to Selvin: And if you ever get on my show, the rules hold fast for you—no trading boxes after the selection. (Hall 1975)

The citation is from a letter from Monty himself, available online here.

I'm not sure how the article you linked to is relevant. It does describe an instance of Monty Hall actually performing the experiment, but it was in his home, not on the show.

Comment deleted 09 June 2010 03:25:21PM [-]
Comment author: RobinZ 09 June 2010 04:16:59PM 1 point [-]

thomblake's remark was relevant too, though - from what I said, you might imagine that Monty Hall let people switch on the show. All the clarifications are relevant and good.