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Jack comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong

126 Post author: komponisto 03 June 2010 04:40AM

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Comment author: Jack 09 June 2010 03:06:14PM *  6 points [-]

Actually, I just realized... there is no reason to swap on Deal or No Deal. The reason why you swap in Monty Hall is that Monty knows which door has the goats and there is no chance he will open a door to reveal a car. But in Deal or No Deal the cases that get opened are chosen by the contestant with no knowledge of what is inside them. It's like if the contestant got to pick which of the two remaining doors to open instead of Monty, there is a 1/3 chance the contestant would open the door with the car leaving her with only goats to choose from. The fact the the contestant got lucky and didn't open the door with the car wouldn't tell her anything about which of the two remaining doors the car is really behind.

ETA: Basically Deal or No Deal is just a really boring game.

Comment author: thomblake 09 June 2010 03:26:29PM 0 points [-]

Basically Deal or No Deal is just a really boring game.

Well, it's exciting for those who like high-stakes randomness. And there are expected utility considerations at every opportunity for a deal (I don't remember if there's a consistent best choice based on the typical deal).

Comment author: Jack 09 June 2010 03:29:15PM 1 point [-]

And there are expected utility considerations at every opportunity for a deal (I don't remember if there's a consistent best choice based on the typical deal).

I was talking about this in my other comment.

Comment author: gwern 09 June 2010 05:44:52PM 0 points [-]

Maybe it could be interesting if you treat it as a psychology game - trying to predict, based on the person's appearance, body language, and statements, whether they will conform to expected-utility or not?