komponisto comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong

126 Post author: komponisto 03 June 2010 04:40AM

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Comment author: komponisto 10 June 2010 03:10:03AM 1 point [-]

My guess at what's going on here is that you're intuitively modeling yourself as having a bounded utility function. In which case (letting N denote an upper bound on your utility), no gamble where the probability of the "good" outcome is less than -1/N times the utility of the "bad" outcome could ever be worth taking. Or, translated into plain English: there are some risks such that no reward could make them worth it -- which, you'll note, is a constraint on rewards.

Comment author: Houshalter 10 June 2010 03:41:04AM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure I understand. Why put a constraint on the reward, and even if you do, why pick some arbitrary value?

Comment author: komponisto 10 June 2010 04:40:58AM *  1 point [-]

That's my question for you! I was attempting to explain the intuition that generated these remarks of yours:

The risk for doing it is also really high, but... the bayesian utility function will evaluate it as acceptable because of the [extraordinarily large] reward involved. On paper, this works out...But in practice most people consider this a very bad course of action