Morendil comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong

126 Post author: komponisto 03 June 2010 04:40AM

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Comment author: DanielVarga 03 June 2010 06:53:11AM 7 points [-]

Wonderful. Are you aware of the Tuesday Boy problem? I think it could have been a more impressive second example.

"I have two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability I have two boys?"

(The intended interpretation is that I have two children, and at least one of them is a boy-born-on-a-Tuesday.)

I found it here: Magic numbers: A meeting of mathemagical tricksters

Comment author: Morendil 28 August 2010 10:12:05PM 1 point [-]

The Tuesday Boy was loads of fun to think about the first time I came across it - thanks to the parent comment. I worked through the calculations with my 14yo son, on a long metro ride, as a way to test my understanding - he seemed to be following along fine.

The discussion in the comments on this blog on Azimuth has, however, taken the delight to an entirely new level. Just wanted to share.