Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

handoflixue comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong

126 Post author: komponisto 03 June 2010 04:40AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (191)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: handoflixue 19 May 2011 08:32:25PM 2 points [-]

The Monty Hall problem seems like it can be simplified: Once you've picked the door, you can switch to instead selecting the two alternate doors. You know that one of the alternate doors contains a goat (since there's only one car), which is equivalent to having Monty open one of those two doors.

The trick is simply in assuming that Monty is actually introducing any new information.

Not sure if it's helpful to anyone else, but it just sort of clicked reading it this time :)