bigjeff5 comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong
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Comments (191)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox
I know it's not the be all end all, but it's generally reliable on these types of questions, and it gives P = 1/2, so I'm not the one disagreeing with the standard result here.
Do the math yourself, it's pretty clear.
Edit: Reading closer, I should say that both answers are right, and the probability can be either 1/2 or 1/3 depending on your assumptions. However, the problem as stated falls best to me in the 1/2 set of assumptions. You are told one child is a boy and given no other information, so the only probability left for the second child is a 50% chance for boy.
Did you actually read it? It does not agree with you. Look under the heading "second question."
I did the math in the post above, enumerating the possibilities for you to try to help you find your mistake.
Edit, in response to the edit:
Which is exactly analogous to what Jiro was saying about the Tuesday question. So we all agree now? Tuesday can raise your probability slightly above 50%, as was said all along.
And you are immediately making the exact same mistake again. You are told ONE child is a boy, you are NOT told the FIRST child is a boy. You do understand that these are different?
Re-read it.