bigjeff5 comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong
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Comments (191)
I'm not at all sure you understand that quote. Lets stick with the coin flips:
Do you understand why these two questions are different: I tell you- "I flipped two coins, at least one of them came out heads, what is the probability that I flipped two heads?" A:1/3 AND "I flipped two coins, you choose one at random and look at it, its heads.What is the probability I flipped two heads" A: 1/2
For the record, I'm sure this is frustrating as all getout for you, but this whole argument has really clarified things for me, even though I still think I'm right about which question we are answering.
Many of my arguments in previous posts are wrong (or at least incomplete and a bit naive), and it didn't click until the last post or two.
Like I said, I still think I'm right, but not because my prior analysis was any good. The 1/3 case was a major hole in my reasoning. I'm happily waiting to see if you're going to destroy my latest analysis, but I think it is pretty solid.