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RobinZ comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong
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Let's get this thread going:
I'd like to ask everyone what probability bump they give to an idea given that some people believe it.
This is based on the fact that out of the humongous idea-space, some ideas are believed by (groups of) humans, and a subset of those are believed by humans and are true. (of course there exist some that are true and not yet believed by humans.)
So, given that some people believe X, what probability do you give for X being true, compared to Y which nobody currently believes?
Usually fairly substantial - if someone presents me with two equally-unsupported claims X and Y and tells me that they believe X and not Y, I would give greater credence to X than to Y. Many times, however, that credence would not reach the level of ... well, credence, for various good reasons.