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Jack comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong
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A question about Bayesian reasoning:
I think one of the things that confused me the most about this is that Bayesian reasoning talks about probabilities. When I start with Pr(My Mom Is On The Phone) = 1/6, its very different from saying Pr(I roll a one on a fair die) = 1/6.
In the first case, my mom is either on the phone or not, but I'm just saying that I'm pretty sure she isn't. In the second, something may or may not happen, but its unlikely to happen.
Am I making any sense... or are they really the same thing and I'm over complicating?
It looks to me like your confusion with these examples just stems from the fact that one event is in the present and the other in the future. Are you still confused if you make it P(Mom will be on the phone at 4 PM tomorrow)= 1/6. Or conversely, you make it P(I rolled a one on the fair die that is now beneath this cup) =1/6
In my experience, when people say something like that it's usually a matter of epistemic vs ontological perspective; and contrasting Laplace's Demon with real-world agents of bounded computational power resolves the difficulty. But that could be overkill