Maelin comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: komponisto 07 June 2010 08:37AM

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Comment author: roundsquare 09 June 2010 09:43:56AM 1 point [-]

A question about Bayesian reasoning:

I think one of the things that confused me the most about this is that Bayesian reasoning talks about probabilities. When I start with Pr(My Mom Is On The Phone) = 1/6, its very different from saying Pr(I roll a one on a fair die) = 1/6.

In the first case, my mom is either on the phone or not, but I'm just saying that I'm pretty sure she isn't. In the second, something may or may not happen, but its unlikely to happen.

Am I making any sense... or are they really the same thing and I'm over complicating?

Comment author: Maelin 09 June 2010 10:01:53AM *  5 points [-]

Remember, probabilities are not inherent facts of the universe, they are statements about how much you know. You don't have perfect knowledge of the universe, so when I ask, "Is your mum on the phone?" you don't have the guaranteed correct answer ready to go. You don't know with complete certainty.

But you do have some knowledge of the universe, gained through your earlier observations of seeing your mother on the phone occasionally. So rather than just saying "I have absolutely no idea in the slightest", you are able to say something more useful: "It's possible, but unlikely." Probabilities are simply a way to quantify and make precise our imperfect knowledge, so we can form more accurate expectations of the future, and they allow us to manage and update our beliefs in a more refined way through Bayes' Law.