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Vladimir_M comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong
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A question about Bayesian reasoning:
I think one of the things that confused me the most about this is that Bayesian reasoning talks about probabilities. When I start with Pr(My Mom Is On The Phone) = 1/6, its very different from saying Pr(I roll a one on a fair die) = 1/6.
In the first case, my mom is either on the phone or not, but I'm just saying that I'm pretty sure she isn't. In the second, something may or may not happen, but its unlikely to happen.
Am I making any sense... or are they really the same thing and I'm over complicating?
You might be interested in this recent discussion, if you haven't seen it already:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/2ax/open_thread_june_2010/23fa