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NancyLebovitz comments on A Sense That More Is Possible - Less Wrong
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How can you be sure? You may well be noticing the successful compulsive liars (at least, the less subtle ones) and not noticing the guys who told one lie too many to the wrong people in their lives.
It is normally difficult enough to avoid selection bias, but there's the additional difficulty here that a disproportionate number of the unsuccessful ones are located in prison.