Cool, but hold on a minute though. I quote:
In measuring precipitation accuracy, the study assumed that if a forecaster predicted a 50 percent or higher chance of precipitation, they were saying it was more likely to rain than not. Less than 50 percent meant it was more likely to not rain.
That prediction was then compared to whether or not it actually did rain...
Isn't something wrong here? If you say "60% chance of rain," and it doesn't rain, you are not necessarily a bad forecaster. Not unless it actually rained on less (or more!) than 60% of those occasions. It should rain on ~60% of occasions on which you say "60% chance of rain."
Am I just confused about this fellow's methodology?
If I'm reading this correctly they are doing exactly what you want but only breaking into two categories "more likely to rain than not" and "less likely to rain than not." But I'm confused by the fact that 50 percent gets into the expecting rain category.
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