Open Thread June 2010, Part 4

Will_Newsome

This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post.

This thread brought to you by quantum immortality.

This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post.

This thread brought to you by quantum immortality.

Strange occurrence in US South Carolina Democratic primary.

The only explanation, Mr. Rawl’s representatives told the committee, was faulty voting machines — not chance, name order on the ballot, or Republicans crossing over to vote for the weaker Democrat. With testimony dominated by talk of standard variances, preference theories and voting machine software, the hearing took on the spirit of a political science seminar.

The Washington Post profiled Alvin Greene last week

10 minute video interview with Greene

What happened here?

Wikipedia has a list of possible explanations.

Fivethirtyeight lists possible explanations and analysis.

Rawl and co presented five hours of testimony that the results could only be attributed to a problem with the voting machines.

What is your probability estimate for Alvin Greene's win in this election being legitimate (Greene getting lucky as a result of aggregate voter intent+indifference+confusion, as opposed to voting machine malfunction or some sort of active conspiracy)? What evidence do you need in order to update your estimate?

I think voters were clueless about both candidates, but they like to fill in all the boxes on the ballot, so they chose the name that has the higher positive affect by far: "Alvin Greene".

To me that would be sufficient to explain the entire anomaly, if not for the mysterious origin of Greene's $10,000 filing fee.

1wedrifid16y

The next election being won by a ficus would boost my estimate. Or, you know, something else ridiculous like an action hero actor.

3prase16y

I don't know the details about the American voting system, but (or maybe therefore) I am surprised how low estimates all people give to the possibility that the result is genuine. My estimate (without much research, I've just read the links) is * 0.5 voters actually voted for Greene * 0.3 error of some kind * 0.2 conspiracy In order to update, any evidence is accepted, of course. What I would most like to see: results of some statistical survey, conducted either before or better after the election, historical data concerning performance of black candidates, historical data from elections with big difference between the intensity of the campaign between the competing candidates, a lot of independent testimonies of trustworthy voters reporting non-standard behaviour of the voting machines, description of how can the results be altered (and what is normally done to avoid that).