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prase comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 4 - Less Wrong
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Strange occurrence in US South Carolina Democratic primary.
The Washington Post profiled Alvin Greene last week
10 minute video interview with Greene
What happened here?
Wikipedia has a list of possible explanations.
Fivethirtyeight lists possible explanations and analysis.
Rawl and co presented five hours of testimony that the results could only be attributed to a problem with the voting machines.
What is your probability estimate for Alvin Greene's win in this election being legitimate (Greene getting lucky as a result of aggregate voter intent+indifference+confusion, as opposed to voting machine malfunction or some sort of active conspiracy)? What evidence do you need in order to update your estimate?
I don't know the details about the American voting system, but (or maybe therefore) I am surprised how low estimates all people give to the possibility that the result is genuine. My estimate (without much research, I've just read the links) is
In order to update, any evidence is accepted, of course. What I would most like to see: results of some statistical survey, conducted either before or better after the election, historical data concerning performance of black candidates, historical data from elections with big difference between the intensity of the campaign between the competing candidates, a lot of independent testimonies of trustworthy voters reporting non-standard behaviour of the voting machines, description of how can the results be altered (and what is normally done to avoid that).