What evidence do you need in order to update your estimate?
The next election being won by a ficus would boost my estimate. Or, you know, something else ridiculous like an action hero actor.
an action hero actor.
Why is this at all ridiculous? Is there any reason to believe Arnold Schwarzenegger has done a significantly worse job than other governors, controlling for ability of the legislature to agree on anything and the health of the economy?
This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post.
This thread brought to you by quantum immortality.