wedrifid comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 4 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Will_Newsome 19 June 2010 04:34AM

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Comment author: wedrifid 19 June 2010 04:46:07PM 1 point [-]

What evidence do you need in order to update your estimate?

The next election being won by a ficus would boost my estimate. Or, you know, something else ridiculous like an action hero actor.

Comment author: LucasSloan 20 June 2010 03:20:59AM *  2 points [-]

an action hero actor.

Why is this at all ridiculous? Is there any reason to believe Arnold Schwarzenegger has done a significantly worse job than other governors, controlling for ability of the legislature to agree on anything and the health of the economy?

Comment author: wedrifid 20 June 2010 03:41:16AM *  3 points [-]

Why is this at all ridiculous?

It merely serves to illustrate what politics is really about. It certainly isn't about voting for people who are the best suited for making and implementing the decisions that are best for the country, planet or species. I actually would have voted for him unless he had a particularly remarkable opponent. All else being equal I take a contribution in another field that is popular and that I appreciate is a more important signal to me than success as a pure courtier. It is unfortunate that I do not have reason to consider consider political popularity as a stronger signal of country-leading competence than creating 'kindergarten cop'.

Is there any reason to believe Arnold Schwarzenegger has done a significantly poorer job than other governors, controlling for ability of the legislature to agree on anything and the health of the economy?

I've already assigned a low probability to Alvin being at all worse than the alternatives. I expect Arnold would be 'even' better.

(Oh, and I do think that one liner is sub par. It would be better to stick to actual ridiculous rather than superficially ridiculous.)