= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
wedrifid comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 4 - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (325)
Strange occurrence in US South Carolina Democratic primary.
The Washington Post profiled Alvin Greene last week
10 minute video interview with Greene
What happened here?
Wikipedia has a list of possible explanations.
Fivethirtyeight lists possible explanations and analysis.
Rawl and co presented five hours of testimony that the results could only be attributed to a problem with the voting machines.
What is your probability estimate for Alvin Greene's win in this election being legitimate (Greene getting lucky as a result of aggregate voter intent+indifference+confusion, as opposed to voting machine malfunction or some sort of active conspiracy)? What evidence do you need in order to update your estimate?
The next election being won by a ficus would boost my estimate. Or, you know, something else ridiculous like an action hero actor.
Why is this at all ridiculous? Is there any reason to believe Arnold Schwarzenegger has done a significantly worse job than other governors, controlling for ability of the legislature to agree on anything and the health of the economy?
It merely serves to illustrate what politics is really about. It certainly isn't about voting for people who are the best suited for making and implementing the decisions that are best for the country, planet or species. I actually would have voted for him unless he had a particularly remarkable opponent. All else being equal I take a contribution in another field that is popular and that I appreciate is a more important signal to me than success as a pure courtier. It is unfortunate that I do not have reason to consider consider political popularity as a stronger signal of country-leading competence than creating 'kindergarten cop'.
I've already assigned a low probability to Alvin being at all worse than the alternatives. I expect Arnold would be 'even' better.
(Oh, and I do think that one liner is sub par. It would be better to stick to actual ridiculous rather than superficially ridiculous.)