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Liron comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 4 - Less Wrong
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Strange occurrence in US South Carolina Democratic primary.
The Washington Post profiled Alvin Greene last week
10 minute video interview with Greene
What happened here?
Wikipedia has a list of possible explanations.
Fivethirtyeight lists possible explanations and analysis.
Rawl and co presented five hours of testimony that the results could only be attributed to a problem with the voting machines.
What is your probability estimate for Alvin Greene's win in this election being legitimate (Greene getting lucky as a result of aggregate voter intent+indifference+confusion, as opposed to voting machine malfunction or some sort of active conspiracy)? What evidence do you need in order to update your estimate?
I think voters were clueless about both candidates, but they like to fill in all the boxes on the ballot, so they chose the name that has the higher positive affect by far: "Alvin Greene".
To me that would be sufficient to explain the entire anomaly, if not for the mysterious origin of Greene's $10,000 filing fee.
Also the possible "Al Green" effect -- voters may have thought they were voting for the famous soul singer.