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RichardKennaway comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 4 - Less Wrong
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When I teach, I don't say anything about "easy" or "difficult". I just teach the material. What is this "easy", this "difficult"? There is no "easy" or "difficult" for a Jedi -- there is only the work to be done and the effort it takes. "Difficult" means "I will fail". "Effort" means "I will succeed".
You are torturing yourself by inventing fictional evidence. You have an entire imaginary scenario there, shadows and fog conjured from thin air.
I don't think Alicorn's evidence is completely fictional. It's a simulation. It's not as much evidence as if she had experienced it in real life, but it's much better than, e.g. the evidence of Terminator on future AIs.
This is a distinction without a difference. "Terminator" is a simulation -- the writers didn't make it up out of nothing. Granted, their purpose is to tell an entertaining story, but the idea that this is what future AIs would be like has been around for a long time, despite Asimov's efforts to create a framework for telling stories of friendly robots.
Or to put it the other way round, Alicorn's scenario is as fictional as "Terminator". It is made out of plausible-sounding elements, as Terminator is, but the "clearly" and "must" and "everybody else but me" are signs that far too much belief is being placed in it.