But my sense is that the "substantial school in the philosophy of science [that] identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such", as well as Eliezer's OB persona, is talking more about a prior implicit in informal human reasoning than about anything that's written down on paper. You can then see model checking as roughly comparing the parts of your prior that you wrote down to all the parts that you didn't write down. Is that wrong?
I don't think informal human reasoning corresponds to Bayesian inference with any prior. Maybe you mean "what informal human reasoning should be". In that case I'd like a formal description of what it should be (ahem).
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