Morendil comments on Open Thread June 2010, Part 4 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: Will_Newsome 19 June 2010 04:34AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (325)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Morendil 30 June 2010 08:52:18PM 2 points [-]

Hopefully the Book Club will get around to covering that as part of Chapter 4.

I can't recall that it has anything to do with "updating your prior"; Jaynes just says that if you get nonsense posterior probabilities, you need to go back and include additional hypotheses in the set you're considering, and this changes the analysis.

See also the quote (I can't be bothered to find it now but I posted it a while ago to a quotes thread) where Jaynes says probability theory doesn't do the job of thinking up hypotheses for you.