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simplicio comments on Surface syllogisms and the sin-based model of causation - Less Wrong
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In fact, a ban on new drilling makes little sense if most of the danger is coming from existing, badly maintained platforms. I imagine BP themselves are quite interested in building new platforms better than the one that malfunctioned.
A ban on new drilling would have the effect of locking out newcomers from the business, consolidating the power of existing companies like BP who control the aforementioned existing, badly maintained platforms. It's possible that BP bribed Washington to impose the ban, in some sort of last-ditch effort to salvage some benefit from the whole situation.
Even if most of the present danger comes from existing, badly maintained platforms, it might still make sense to ban new drilling if one expected new drilling to eventually overtake current drilling in dangerousness.
But they say it's a temporary ban...
Ah. I didn't know how long the ban was.
Given the political power wielded by companies interested in drilling (not just BP), I don't believe Congress would either want or be able to institute a permanent ban. They are far more likely to spend their efforts on legislating and enforcing stricter security standards on both old and new platforms.