I agree with those predictions. However, my point would become clear if you attempted to translate your probability of 0.98 into a bet with me, with me betting $100 and you betting $5000. I would surely win the bet (with at least a probability of 0.98).

No it wouldn't because that's a very different situation. My probability estimate for you not eating food in a 48 hour period if you get paid $5000 when you succeed and must pay $100 if you fail is much lower. If I made the bet with some third party I'd be perfectly willing to do so as long as I had some reassurance that the third party isn't intending to pay you a large portion of the resulting winnings if you win.