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Nick_Tarleton comments on What if AI doesn't quite go FOOM? - Less Wrong
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I am disagreeing on the question of fact. What we can do without an FAI is by far superior to any scraps we can expect smiley-face maximiser to contribute due to exchanges.The greatest of the existential risks that not having an FAI entails is the threat of an uFAI. anti-AI removes that. We do have some potential for survival based on other technologies within our grasp. SIAI would have to devote itself to solving other hard problems.
Wei mentioned a combinatorial explosion. He may have been applying it somewhat differently than I am but I am claiming that an overwhelming number of the possible mind designs that Smiley is bargaining with are also bad for me. He is bargaining with a whole lot of Clippy's brothers and sisters. Bargaining with a whole lot of GAIs that are released that care primarily about their own propagation. Even more importantly that small proportion of FAIs that do exist are not friendly to things I care about. Almost none of them will result in me personally being alive.
This all assumes that the bargaining does in fact go ahead. I'm not certain either way either and nor am I certain that in the specific case of Smiley one of his optimal trading partners will be an FAI which I happen to like.
All this means that I am comfortable with the assertion you quote. If you or Rolf did try to stop me from pressing that no-AI button then you would just be obstacles that needed to be eliminated, even if your motives are pure. My life and all that I hold dear is at stake!
I understand that you don't want to die or lose the future, and I understand the ingrained thought that UFAI = total loss, but please try to look past that, consider that you may be wrong, see that being willing to 'eliminate' your allies over factual disagreements loses, and cooperate in the iterated epistemic prisoner's dilemma with your epistemic peers. You seem to be pretty obviously coming at this question from a highly emotional position, and should try to deal with that before arguing the object level.
That it's far superior is not obvious, both because it's not obvious how well we could reasonably expect to do without FAI (How likely would we be to successfully construct a singleton locking in our values? How efficiently could we use resources? Would the anti-AI interfere with human intelligence enhancement or uploading, either of which seems like it would destroy huge amounts of value?), and because our notional utility function might see steeply diminishing marginal returns to resources before using the entire future light cone (see this discussion).
I am, or at least was, considering the facts, including what was supplied in the links. I was also assuming for the sake of the argument that the kind of agent that the incompetent AI developers created would recursively improve to one that cooperated without communication with other universes.
Discussing the effects and implications of decisions in counterfactuals is not something that is at all emotional for me. It fascinates me. On the other hand the natural conclusion to counterfactuals (which are inevitably discussing extreme situations) is something that does seem to inspire emotional judgments, which is something that overrides my fascination.