djcb comments on Rationality & Criminal Law: Some Questions - Less Wrong
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Pretty high, actually. Drunkenness is a red herring here. Let's put it another way: if you're told that A once killed someone accidentally while B didn't, what's your credence that B is better at friggin' not killing people accidentally? You seem to imply the credence should be low. Why on Earth? I say it's pretty high, because A has demonstrated a very low level of said skill.
Well, I think your drunk-driving skill are only a factor to the extent that you're more likely not to get caught; but I doubt that if you had some kind of evidence of being an excellent drunk-driver, it would help you to get a lower sentence if you'd cause an accident anyhow.