djcb comments on Rationality & Criminal Law: Some Questions - Less Wrong

14 Post author: simplicio 20 June 2010 07:42AM

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Comment author: cousin_it 20 June 2010 12:54:05PM *  4 points [-]

If you're told that two people have once driven over the limit, that A killed someone while B didn't, and nothing more, what's your level of credence that B is the more skilled drunk driver?

Pretty high, actually. Drunkenness is a red herring here. Let's put it another way: if you're told that A once killed someone accidentally while B didn't, what's your credence that B is better at friggin' not killing people accidentally? You seem to imply the credence should be low. Why on Earth? I say it's pretty high, because A has demonstrated a very low level of said skill.

Comment author: djcb 20 June 2010 01:36:45PM 1 point [-]

Well, I think your drunk-driving skill are only a factor to the extent that you're more likely not to get caught; but I doubt that if you had some kind of evidence of being an excellent drunk-driver, it would help you to get a lower sentence if you'd cause an accident anyhow.