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CronoDAS comments on Rationality & Criminal Law: Some Questions - Less Wrong
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From what I've read, the idea is that the prosecutors, who tend to work with the same judges over and over, know what level of evidence it takes to convince them to convict, so they can accurately predict the outcome of each trial before it happens and, if they think they might lose, simply don't bring the case. (In other words, "certain to win" doesn't imply "slam-dunk evidence".)
Interesting.
The first question that comes to mind though is how do they come to know exactly what level of evidence a given judge requires to convict, if they virtually never see an example of the judge not convicting?
Well, one way would be to ask the judge.
It could be that the whole system operates according to established rules, whether formal or informal, that are acknowledged by everyone involved. The prosecutors have to satisfy a certain well-defined bureaucratic procedure when preparing the case, and the judge merely rubber-stamps their papers if this job has been done correctly. Many things in all sorts of bureaucratic institutions work this way, and if the people involved are highly conscientious and not suffering from significant perverse incentives, the results may well be far from terrible.