Regarding Moral Luck, I would quote Alonzo Fyfe's post:

Among primitive animals, who lack the capacity to theorize about underlying mental state, harm done is a reasonable approximation of harm intended. We need a rule of thumb that is simple enough for chimpanzees to understand. (emphasis added)

He does argue that as we grow more capable of abstract thought we should punish based on intent to harm (or degree of negligence) rather than on actual harm caused.