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whpearson comments on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Reading People - Less Wrong
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Comments (24)
Changing trends? Take hippy clothes. In the 60s a probable indicator of promiscuity, nowadays more likely to be a green (who are not known for their free love).
Also if it were collated and published humans would be somewhat anti-inductive if possible. For example if liking cats had a low mutual probability with sociopathy, and this was widely known, then sociopaths would pretend to like cats in order to avoid detection.
Do you really think people making studies giving numbers to trends that are already widely known would make a difference? Most people pick up this kind of data intuitively but would never consider memorizing a table buried in the middle of a research paper. Having the figures just makes it easier to learn empathy in a systematic way. (Which, incidentally, few people would even be capable of.)
When conducting surveillance across a diverse population, having this information would certainly be useful. What proportion of shoplifters carry large bags? What proportion of bag carriers are shoplifters?
Come to think of it, perhaps this is how airline safety ought to work?
Any sort of predictive field of individual behavior ought to be able to make use of this data. Especially useful if you can tie in some computer assisted image tagging.
I suspect not everyone knows every trend. Lots of high class people might not know about straight edge punks. I also suspect that someone will write a pop-sci book about it if it interesting.