SarahC comments on So You Think You're a Bayesian? The Natural Mode of Probabilistic Reasoning - Less Wrong
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Comments (79)
This is very interesting. Thanks!
When I heard about Bayesian and Frequentist, I thought Bayesianism made more intuitive sense because I was used to working with random variables. (It's the intuition of someone more used to chalkboards than lab coats.)
I wonder if people appear to be "natural frequentists" because we are better at thinking "how many" than "how likely." "How likely" is a prediction about the future; and it's easy to think that your wishes and hopes can influence the future.
Maybe what we're really bad at is internalizing the Ergodic Theorem -- understanding that if something happens a low percentage of the time, then it's unlikely to happen.