Matt_Simpson comments on So You Think You're a Bayesian? The Natural Mode of Probabilistic Reasoning - Less Wrong

48 Post author: Matt_Simpson 14 July 2010 04:51PM

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Comment author: Matt_Simpson 14 July 2010 11:48:21PM 0 points [-]

Yeah, I rounded. Using Bayes' theorem, the probability is .196 or so, so that gives .98/50.