Comment on So You Think You're a Bayesian? The Natural Mode of Probabilistic Reasoning

Thu, 15 Jul 2010 04:14:52 GMT

But that example is probabilities. Here's how I would redesign the experiment to make the subjects think in frequencies:

Generate a random integer from 0 to the number of countries in the world

Ask subjects whether this number is higher or lower than the number in Africa

Ask subjects to estimate the number of nations that are in Africa

sub treatments: either tell subjects the total number of nations in the world or don't.

Discuss