mattnewport comments on So You Think You're a Bayesian? The Natural Mode of Probabilistic Reasoning - Less Wrong
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Comments (79)
AlephNeil:
I just skimmed through the 1983 Tversky & Kahneman paper, and the same thing occurred to me. Given the pragmatics of human natural language communication, I would say that T&K (and the people who have been subsequently citing them) are making too much of these cases. I'm not at all surprised that the rate of "fallacious" answers plummets when the question is asked in a way that suggests that it should be understood in an unnaturally literal way, free of pragmatics -- and I'd expect that even the remaining fallacious answers are mostly due to casual misunderstandings of the question, again caused by pragmatics (i.e. people casually misinterpreting "A" as "A & non-B" when it's contrasted with "A & B").
The other examples of the conjunction fallacy cited by T&K also don't sound very impressive to me when examined more closely. The US-USSR diplomatic break question sounds interesting until you realize that the probabilities actually assigned were so tiny that they can't be reasonably interpreted as anything but saying that the event is within the realm of the possible, but extremely unlikely. The increase due to conjunction fallacy seems to me well within the noise -- I mean, what rational sense does it make to even talk about the numerical values of probabilities such as 0.0047 and 0.0014 with regards to a question like this one? The same holds for the other questions cited in the same section.
It strikes me that academics have a blind spot to one of the major weaknesses of this research because to get to their position they have had to adapt to exam questions effectively during their formative years.
One of the tricks to success in exams is to learn how to read the questions in a very particular way where you ignore all your background knowledge and focus to an unusual degree on the precise wording and context of the question. This is a terrible (and un-Bayesian) practice in most real world scenarios but is necessary to jump through the academic hoops required to get through school and university.
Most people who haven't trained themselves to deal with these type of questions will apply common sense and make 'unwarranted' assumptions. A wise strategy in the real world but not in exam style questions.