Matt_Simpson comments on So You Think You're a Bayesian? The Natural Mode of Probabilistic Reasoning - Less Wrong

48 Post author: Matt_Simpson 14 July 2010 04:51PM

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Comment author: Matt_Simpson 15 July 2010 04:14:52AM *  2 points [-]

But that example is probabilities. Here's how I would redesign the experiment to make the subjects think in frequencies:

  • Generate a random integer from 0 to the number of countries in the world
  • Ask subjects whether this number is higher or lower than the number in Africa
  • Ask subjects to estimate the number of nations that are in Africa
  • sub treatments: either tell subjects the total number of nations in the world or don't.