MichaelTurner comments on So You Think You're a Bayesian? The Natural Mode of Probabilistic Reasoning - Less Wrong
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"Do you mean to say that there is no way to employ/train our brains to do rational thinking more effectively and intuitively?"
I don't don't know whether RickJS meant to say that or not. But this blog post suggests to me a way forward: whenever confronted with questions about likelihood or probability, consciously step back and assess whether a frequentist analysis is possible. Use that approach if it is. If not, shift toward Bayesian views. But in either case, also ask: can I really compute this accurately, or is it too complex? Some things you can do well enough in your head, especially when perfect accuracy isn't necessary (or even possible). Some things you can't.
Maybe if you started kids in their junior year in high school, they might be pretty skilled at telling which was which (of the four possibilities inherent in what I outline above) by the end of their senior year.