ewbrownv comments on So You Think You're a Bayesian? The Natural Mode of Probabilistic Reasoning - Less Wrong
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I'll go one further. Someone who frequently makes statements like these typically isn't reasoning at all, but simply rationalizing to justify some belief they have an emotional attachment to. I'd have to take anything else he says with a big grain of salt, because if he's capable of torturing logic this much on the obvious cases the ones that aren't obvious are probably even worse.