AlexMennen comments on So You Think You're a Bayesian? The Natural Mode of Probabilistic Reasoning - Less Wrong

48 Post author: Matt_Simpson 14 July 2010 04:51PM

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Comment author: AlexMennen 16 July 2010 06:13:48PM 3 points [-]

More evidence in favor of the hypothesis that we are natural frequentists: Even though I try to think like a Bayesian, I am mentally incapable of assigning probabilities without perfect information. The best I can do is offer a range of probabilities that seem reasonable, whereas a real Bayesian should be able to average the probabilities that it would assign given all possible sets of perfect information, weighted by likelihood.