Soki comments on So You Think You're a Bayesian? The Natural Mode of Probabilistic Reasoning - Less Wrong

48 Post author: Matt_Simpson 14 July 2010 04:51PM

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Comment author: JanetK 15 July 2010 09:27:30AM 6 points [-]

Your idea that the subjects are not taking the question seriously is a good one.

I had a discussion with someone about a very similar real life 'Linda'. It was finally resolved by realizing that the other person didn't think of 'and' and 'or' as defined terms that always differed and was quite put out that I thought he should know that. To put it in 'Linda' terms: he know that Linda was a feminist and doubted that she was a teller. This being the case the 'and' should be thought of as an 'or' and b was more likely than a. Why would anyone think differently? It kind of blew my mind that I was being accused of being sloppy or illogical by using the fixed defined meaning for 'and' and 'or'. I have since that time noticed that people actually often have this vagueness about logical terms.

Comment author: Soki 17 July 2010 05:31:36PM *  0 points [-]

I would not say that this person replaced "and" by "or".
I guess they considered the statement "Lisa is a bank teller and a feminist" to be "50%" true if Lisa turns out to be a feminist but not a bank teller.

The formula used would be something like P(AB)=1/2*(P(A)+P(B))