Kaj_Sotala comments on What Cost for Irrationality? - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (113)
Regarding the "financial harm" example: the only irrational thing Paulos did was keeping all his eggs in one basket, instead of diversifying his portfolio. As a rule almost without exception, unless you have insider information, it's never more rational to buy one single stock instead of another, regardless of which ones are soaring and which ones plunging at the moment. If you're not convinced, consider the following: at each point during Paulos's purchases of Worldcom stock, if it had been certain from public information, or even highly likely, that the stock would keep plunging, then shorting it would have been a killer investment -- to the point where it would be foolish for big investors to invest in anything else at the moment. But of course, that was not the case.
Maybe I'm reading too much into your example, but it seems like you believe that investing in Worldcom stock at that point was somehow especially irrational compared to other single-stock investments. Yet, any non-diversified investment in a single stock is pretty much an equivalent gamble, and Paulos was not more irrational than other people who get into that sort of gambling. (Except arguably for a tiny number of extremely sophisticated investors on Wall Street who have superior ways of making predictions from public information, but even the existence of such creatures -- as opposed to those favored by survivorship bias -- is uncertain.)
Edit: Come to think of it, some of the MWI proponents here should agree that by their criteria, there was nothing irrational about Paulos's investment at all.
According to the book, when the stock price started plunging, pretty much all evidence indicated that it probably wasn't going to go up again. He apparently wasn't shorting, either. Paulos is also quoted as admitting both that he only looked for favorable evidence, as well as knowing that he should've been selling when he was in fact buying.
Kaj_Sotala:
Trouble is, such certainty is inherently impossible in the stock market. If the stock is certain not to go up, then there is no point holding it, which means that you should get rid of it -- which means that everyone will sell it, causing it to plunge. But then shorting it becomes a certain killer investment. (And the same reasoning also works even if we only have a high probability rather than certainty, since lots of big investors with well-pooled risk will be attracted even if just the expected values are out of the ordinary in any direction.)
Generally speaking, it is a very close and safe approximation of reality to simply assume that any extraordinary future performance of any stock that would be implied by the public information, whether good or bad, automatically triggers reactions from investors that invalidate this prediction. Thus, if you're going to gamble with single-stock investing, you may well just pick it randomly.