komponisto comments on What Cost for Irrationality? - Less Wrong
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Re. the Roy Meadows/Sally Clark example, you say:
More importantly, the 73 million to 1 number was completely irrelevant.
The interesting number is not "the odds of two children in the same family dying of infant death syndrome" but "the odds of two children in the same family having died of infant death syndrome given that two children in that family had died", which are obviously much higher.
Of course, you need to know the first number in order to calculate the second (using Bayes' theorem) but Meadows (and everyone else present at the trial) managed to conflate the two.
edit 05/07: corrected bizarre thinko at the end of penultimate paragraph.
You meant "higher", right? (Or, alternatively, "odds against".)
Yes, I do mean "higher". I also mean "are"... I guess what was going through my head is that 1:1 (or whatever the actual number is) involves a lower number than 73,000,000:1 (although I'm not entirely sure that I didn't just make a mistake). I'll edit.