To clarify; I think you should be ridiculously confident, but not as confident as your reasoning by itself would justify.

I agree (and voted accordingly). The influence of the direct probability I calculated would be utterly overwhelmed in my confidence calculation compared to meta-uncertainty. I certainly wouldn't go as far as placing 1:10,000 odds, for example, even though my calculations would put it at 1^(-lots). In fact, I can't even assign extreme odds to something as obvious as there is no Jehova, except for signalling purposes. I know enough about the way me (and my species) think that assigning extreme probabilities would be ridiculously overconfident. (How this relates to things like Pascal's wager is a different and somewhat more philosophically difficult problem.)