waveman comments on What Cost for Irrationality? - Less Wrong

59 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 01 July 2010 06:25PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_M 01 July 2010 08:31:34PM *  23 points [-]

Regarding the "status quo bias" example with the utility company, I think it's fallacious, or at least misleading. For realistic typical humans with all their intellectual limitations, it is rational to favor the status quo when someone offers to change a deal that has so far worked tolerably well in ways that, for all you know, could have all sorts of unintended consequences. (And not to mention the swindles that might be hiding in the fine print.)

Moreover, if the utility company had actually started selling different deals rather than just conducting a survey about hypotheticals, it's not like typical folks would have stubbornly held to unfavorable deals for years. What happens in such situations is that a clever minority figures out that the new deal is indeed more favorable and switches -- and word about their good experience quickly spreads and soon becomes conventional wisdom, which everyone else then follows.

This is how human society works normally -- what you call "status quo bias" is a highly beneficial heuristic that prevents people from ruining their lives. It makes them stick to what's worked well so far instead of embarking on attractive-looking, but potentially dangerous innovations. When this mechanism breaks down, all kinds of collective madness can follow (speculative bubbles and Ponzi schemes being the prime examples). Generally, it is completely rational to favor a tolerably good status quo even if some calculation tells you that an unconventional change might be beneficial, unless you're very confident in your competence to do that calculation, or you know of other people's experiences that have confirmed it.

Comment author: waveman 19 August 2016 05:00:02AM 1 point [-]

someone offers to change a deal that has so far worked tolerably well in ways that, for all you know, could have all sorts of unintended consequences

This exact thing happened to me last year. I signed up for a great new deal and now it has blown up in my face. The cost of safely switching from a fairly satisfactory status quo can be high - high R&D costs - especially when you are dealing with crooks and charlatans.