Comment on Open Thread: July 2010

Sat, 03 Jul 2010 16:33:22 GMT

I don't :)

If there is a disagreement on, say, the status of Taiwan, even someone who doesn't know much it might agree that some good predictors would agree that some good predictors would be "knowledge of the history of Taiwan", "Having lived in Taiwan", "Familiarity with Chinese culture", etc.

And it can be interesting to see whether:

People of different opinions consider different predictors as important (conveniently, those that favor their position)

Everyone agrees on which predictors are important, but those who score highly on those predictors have a different opinion from those that score lowly (which would be evidence that they are probably right)

Everyone agrees on which predictors are important, but even among those who score highly on those predictors, opinions are split.

I guess what I'm getting at is "If you take the outside view, how likely is it that your opinions are true"?

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