hegemonicon comments on Open Thread: July 2010 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: komponisto 01 July 2010 09:20PM

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Comment author: satt 07 July 2010 11:28:49AM *  7 points [-]

But neither of those are particularly compelling reasons for disagreement - can anyone more familiar with the psychological/statistical territory shed some light?

Shalizi's most basic point — that factor analysis will generate a general factor for any bunch of sufficiently strongly correlated variables — is correct.

Here's a demo. The statistical analysis package R comes with some built-in datasets to play with. I skimmed through the list and picked out six monthly datasets (72 data points in each):

It's pretty unlikely that there's a single causal general factor that explains most of the variation in all six of these time series, especially as they're from mostly non-overlapping time intervals. They aren't even that well correlated with each other: the mean correlation between different time series is -0.10 with a std. dev. of 0.34. And yet, when I ask R's canned factor analysis routine to calculate a general factor for these six time series, that general factor explains 1/3 of their variance!

However, Shalizi's blog post covers a lot more ground than just this basic point, and it's difficult for me to work out exactly what he's trying to say, which in turn makes it difficult to say how correct he is overall. What does Shalizi mean specifically by calling g a myth? Does he think it is very unlikely to exist, or just that factor analysis is not good evidence for it? Who does he think is in error about its nature? I can think of one researcher in particular who stands out as just not getting it, but beyond that I'm just not sure.

Comment author: hegemonicon 07 July 2010 02:49:44PM 2 points [-]

From what I can gather, he's saying all other evidence points to a large number of highly specialized mental functions instead of one general intelligence factor, and that psychologists are making a basic error by not understanding how to apply and interpret the statistical tests they're using. It's the latter which I find particularly unlikely (not impossible though).

Comment author: satt 07 July 2010 04:41:29PM 1 point [-]

You might be right. I'm not really competent to judge the first issue (causal structure of the mind), and the second issue (interpretation of factor analytic g) is vague enough that I could see myself going either way on it.