LucasSloan comments on A Taxonomy of Bias: The Cognitive Miser - Less Wrong

52 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 02 July 2010 06:38PM

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Comment author: LucasSloan 02 July 2010 06:48:34PM 2 points [-]

One of the cans had nine white jelly beans and one red jelly bean. The other had eight white jelly beans and ninety-two red jelly beans. The subjects were told to pick one of the cans and then draw a jelly bean at random from their chosen can: if they got a red one, they'd win a dollar. Most picked the can with one red jelly bean (a 10% chance) but 30 to 40 percent of the subjects picked the one with the worse (8%) odds.

If there are 92 red and 8 white jelly bellies, there is a 92% chance of getting a red jelly belly. Did you invert the colors?

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 02 July 2010 06:50:59PM 0 points [-]

...yes, I did. I seem to be awful at correcting for belief bias effects: I hope it's only for silly writing mistakes like these, and not in general...

Anyway, thanks. Corrected.

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