Christian_Szegedy comments on Open Thread: July 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Alicorn 09 July 2010 06:54AM

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Comment author: Christian_Szegedy 13 July 2010 12:40:58AM *  4 points [-]

There are a lot of alternatives to fusion energy and since energy production is a widely recognized societal issue, making individual bets on that is not an immediate matter of life and death on a personal level.

I agree with you, though, that a sufficiently high probability estimate on the workability of cryonics is necessary to rationally spend money on it.

However, if you give 1% chance for both fusion and cryonics to work, it could still make sense to bet on the latter but not on the first.

Comment author: [deleted] 13 July 2010 12:50:42AM 1 point [-]

Don't read too much into my fusion analogy; you're right that cryonics is different than fusion.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 13 July 2010 01:04:40AM 4 points [-]

May I suggest also that we be careful to distinguish cold fusion from fusion in general? Cold fusion is extremely unlikely. Hot fusion reactors whether laser confinement or magnetic confinement already exist, the only issue is getting them to produce more useful energy than you put in. This is very different than cold fusion where the scientific consensus is that there's nothing fusing.

Comment author: Christian_Szegedy 13 July 2010 01:01:51AM 1 point [-]

... and different to almost any other unproven technology (for the exact same reason).