I wonder what the average probability of truth is for every spoken statement made by the human populace on your average day, for various message lengths. Anybody wanna try some Fermi calculations?
I'm guessing it's rather high, as most statements are trivial observations about sensory data, performative utterances, or first-glance approximations of one's preferences. I would also predict sentence accuracy drops off extremely quickly the more words the sentence has, and especially so the more syllables there are per word in that sentence.
Once you are beyond the most elementary of statements I really don't think so, rather the opposite, at least for unique rather than for repeated statements. Most untrue statements are probably either ad hoc lies ("You look great." "That's a great gift." "I don't have any money with me.") or misremembered information.
In the case of of ad hoc lies there is not enough time to invent plausible details and inventing details without time to think it through increases the risk of being caught, in the case of misremembered informati...
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July Part 1