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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Open Thread: July 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong
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Well, that was me calling bullshit.
Thanks! But it seems you're being needlessly abrasive about it. Perhaps it's a cultural thing? Anyway, did you read the expanded version of my comment? I tried to be clearer in my explanation there, but it's hard to convey philosophical intuitions.
I find myself unable to clearly articulate what's wrong with your idea, but in my own words, it reads as follows:
"One should believe certain things to be probable because those are the kinds of things that people believe through magical thinking."