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AdamBell comments on Open Thread: July 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong
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In relation to these sorts of sites, what's a normal level of success on this sort of thing for LW readers? If people chose ten things now that they thought were fifty percent likely to occur by the end of next week, would exactly five of them end up happening?
I don't know of any LWers who have used PB enough to really have a solid level of normal. My own PB stats are badly distorted by all my janitorial work.
I suspect not many LWers have put in the work for calibration; at least, I see very few scores posted at http://lesswrong.com/lw/1f8/test_your_calibration/
So, I couldn't say. It would be nice if we were all calibrated. (But incidentally you can be perfectly calibrated and not have 5/10 of 50% items happen; it could just be a bad week for you.)